Mortgage rates: Current Trends in Amid Rising Inflation
Current Trends in Mortgage Rates Amid Rising Inflation
Prior to the outbreak of war, mortgage rates had largely been expected to continue on a downward trend in the UK this year. However, recent developments have shifted this outlook significantly. The escalation of conflict in Iran has revived inflation fears, prompting major UK lenders to adjust their mortgage rates upwards in response to changing interest rate expectations.
As of March 9, 2026, the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate rose to 4.84%, up from 4.82% just five days earlier. Similarly, the average five-year fixed residential mortgage rate increased from 4.94% to 4.96% within the same timeframe. These changes reflect a broader trend among lenders, including Barclays, which announced it would raise rates on some mortgage products starting March 10, 2026.
Ben Perks, a financial analyst, commented on the situation, stating, “When Trump dropped his first bomb on Iran, it blew up all hope of a rate reduction this month.” This sentiment is echoed by Mike Staton, who noted, “Yes, inflation is likely to tick up again with energy and fuel prices rising due to global conflict.” Such statements highlight the prevailing concern among experts regarding the potential for further increases in mortgage rates.
On March 9, 2026, the average two-year fixed homeowner mortgage rate was recorded at 4.87%, while the average five-year fixed homeowner mortgage rate stood at 4.98%. Numerous lenders, including HSBC and Nationwide, have also adjusted their fixed-rate offerings upwards, reflecting the changing economic landscape.
Market analysts suggest that the likelihood of an interest rate rise before the end of the year is now at 70%, with markets pricing in the possibility of only one rate cut for the entire year. This shift in expectations is largely attributed to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on inflation.
House prices have also been affected, with a reported increase of 0.3% in February 2026 following an 0.8% rise in January 2026. The combination of rising mortgage rates and increasing house prices presents a challenging environment for potential homebuyers.
Adam French, a housing market expert, remarked, “Mortgage rates had looked poised to fall ahead of an expected March base rate cut, but the escalation of conflict in Iran has abruptly shifted the mood and revived inflation fears.” This indicates that the current situation is fluid, and the outlook for mortgage rates may continue to evolve as events unfold.
Looking ahead, Alice Haine, a mortgage broker, noted, “If the Middle East conflict proves short-lived and mortgage rates ease again, brokers can often switch borrowers to a better rate on their product right up until two weeks before their mortgage term starts.” This suggests that there may still be opportunities for borrowers to secure favorable rates, depending on how the geopolitical situation develops.