Mortgage Rates Surge Amid Market Turmoil

Mortgage Rates Surge Amid Market Turmoil

The upheaval in the mortgage market is the biggest since the aftermath of the 2022 mini-budget. Average mortgage rates in the UK have now surpassed 5%, driven by turmoil in the home loan market caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

As of March 11, 2026, the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has reached 5.01%, while the typical rate on a five-year mortgage is now 5.09%. This sharp increase has prompted nearly 500 mortgage deals to be pulled in the past 48 hours, marking a significant shift in the lending landscape.

In total, 472 residential mortgage products were withdrawn from the market, reflecting a level of uncertainty not seen since the September 2022 mini-budget. With about 1.8 million fixed-rate deals set to expire in 2026, many borrowers will need to secure new mortgages under these challenging conditions.

Adam French, a financial expert, noted, “It’s unwelcome news for borrowers, as the prospect of falling mortgage rates has quickly given way to rate rises.” He further commented on the current situation, stating, “Recent days have been some of the most turbulent in the UK mortgage market since the aftermath of the September 2022 mini-budget.”

The probability of a rate reduction this year has dwindled to just 20%, down from 50% just days earlier on March 8, 2026. This shift indicates a growing concern among lenders and borrowers alike regarding future rate movements.

Looking ahead, the base rate is expected to be held at 3.75% during the central bank’s meeting on March 19, 2026. French mentioned that many of the withdrawn deals are likely to return in the coming days and weeks as lenders adjust their pricing strategies to align with higher rate expectations.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact impact of the Middle East conflict on future mortgage rates. Observers are closely monitoring how global markets and inflation expectations evolve in response to the ongoing situation.