Recent reports indicate that the Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait alone provides roughly 10% of Europe’s jet fuel imports. As a result, airlines such as Air New Zealand have begun cutting flights in and out of Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, while Air India has adjusted its fuel surcharge on domestic flights based on distance. Delta Airlines reported fuel costs of $2.7 billion in the January-March period, marking a 14% increase compared to the previous year.

In response to these pressures, many airlines in Asia are trimming services and raising fares. United Airlines and SAS have both cut flights and increased ticket prices, while Air France-KLM plans to lift fares for long-haul journeys. The situation has prompted Ryanair to warn that 10% of its summer flights could be axed if the current conditions persist.

Despite these challenges, the UK government has stated that there are no immediate jet fuel supply shortages, and Airlines UK reported that carriers are currently not experiencing disruptions to jet fuel supplies. However, Goldman Sachs has indicated that 40% of the UK’s jet fuel is at risk, highlighting the precarious nature of the situation.

Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta, emphasized the urgency of addressing higher fuel costs, stating, “There’s a high sense of urgency to address higher fuel costs and reduce unprofitable flying.” This sentiment is echoed across the industry, as airlines grapple with the financial implications of increased operational costs.

In a more alarming forecast, industry experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume passage within three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage is expected for the EU. As one industry analyst noted, “The current crisis is best understood as a compound systems shock, affecting safety, costs, and long-term strategic positioning simultaneously.” Details remain unconfirmed regarding the timeline for the resumption of passage through this critical waterway.

As the situation develops, the long-term impact of the current Middle East conflict on the airline industry remains uncertain. Airlines are closely monitoring the geopolitical landscape, as any further escalation could exacerbate the challenges they are already facing in terms of fuel supply and pricing.

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The Trump administration is preparing to issue a temporary suspension of the Jones Act, which could allow foreign tankers to supply fuel to the U.S. East Coast. This decision comes as gasoline prices have surged to $3.60 per gallon, the highest level since May 2024, and diesel prices have reached $4.89 per gallon, the highest since late 2022.

Immediate Circumstances

The proposed suspension would involve 30-day waivers that would enable foreign vessels to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast to East Coast refiners. This measure is seen as a response to the escalating conflict with Iran and aims to alleviate the pressure on fuel prices. The last waiver for the Jones Act was issued in October 2022, following Hurricane Fiona, highlighting the law’s historical suspension during major national emergencies.

The Jones Act, formally known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, mandates that goods shipped between U.S. ports must be transported on vessels that are American-built, American-owned, American-flagged, and crewed primarily by American workers. This regulation has garnered strong support from maritime unions, making any potential suspension politically sensitive. The number of qualifying ocean-going vessels under the Jones Act has significantly decreased from 193 to just 92, further complicating domestic shipping capabilities.

Official Statements

White House spokesperson Katherine Leavit stated, “The administration is considering waiving the Jones Act for a period, though she noted the action had not been finalised.” The policy is viewed as a national security measure designed to support the domestic shipbuilding industry and maintain a U.S. merchant fleet. The waiver could potentially slow gasoline price increases by roughly five to ten cents per gallon, providing some relief to consumers.

Details remain unconfirmed as the administration weighs its options in light of rising fuel costs and geopolitical tensions. The most recent waivers were issued after hurricanes such as Harvey and Maria in 2017, demonstrating the law’s application in times of crisis. As the situation develops, the administration’s decision will be closely monitored by both industry stakeholders and consumers alike.

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Fuel prices in the UK have seen significant fluctuations, with petrol currently priced at 137.51p per litre and diesel nearing £1.51 per litre. These prices are reflective of broader trends influenced by global oil markets.

Brent Crude Oil and Fuel Duty

The price of Brent Crude Oil has recently peaked at around $120 (£89), contributing to the rising costs at the pump. In response to these challenges, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an extension of the 5p per litre cut in fuel duty for an additional five months, ensuring that fuel duty will not increase in line with inflation this year.

Market Vigilance

The Competition and Markets Authority has been instructed to remain vigilant regarding fuel prices, as experts call for further measures to alleviate the financial burden on motorists. Reeves emphasized the need for rapid de-escalation to keep fuel prices low, stating, “The way to keep fuel prices low was rapid de-escalation.”

Gas Prices on the Rise

In addition to fuel prices, gas prices have also surged, rising from 78p/therm to 161p/therm within a week. Simon Cran-McGreehin noted that while current gas prices are a long way off the record highs seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the rate of increase is concerning.

Petrol and diesel prices peaked across the UK in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, highlighting the vulnerability of fuel prices to geopolitical events. Experts like Howard Cox have predicted that fluctuations in crude oil prices could lead to significant increases at the pump, with estimates suggesting that hitting over $100 (£75) could add around 20p per litre to filling up.

Future Expectations

As the situation evolves, observers are closely monitoring the fuel market for any further changes. The combination of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics will likely continue to influence fuel prices in the coming months. Details remain unconfirmed regarding any additional measures that may be implemented to address these rising costs.

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