The UAE was producing 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil before the Iran war disrupted supply chains and led to a 44% slump in production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, the UAE accounted for around 12% of total OPEC output.

Currently, the UAE has increased its production capacity to approximately 4.85 million b/d, with plans to reach 5 million b/d by 2027. In 2024, its average crude oil production was recorded at 2.95 million b/d, reflecting ongoing challenges within OPEC.

The departure of the UAE is expected to weaken OPEC’s influence significantly. Analysts suggest that this move might lead to further fracturing among remaining members as they navigate their own production strategies amid external pressures like the ongoing Iran war.

This situation has raised concerns about the stability of oil prices globally. The Iran war has already wiped out 7.88 million barrels a day of OPEC’s production in March, contributing to a 27% fall in overall output.

The implications for UAE-Saudi relations are also noteworthy. The UAE aims to bolster its ties with the US while distancing itself from OPEC’s collective strategies. Dr. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi stated, “The UAE is redefining its role from a producer within a bloc to a balancing producer that contributes to market stability through its ability to act.” This indicates a strategic pivot towards greater independence.

As policymakers in the UAE express dissatisfaction with their previous alliance, Will Wechsler remarked, “It is easy to understand why policymakers in the UAE are no longer interested in being a part of this organization.” This sentiment underscores a broader trend where national interests may take precedence over collective agreements.

Landon Derentz highlighted that “the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC marks a symbolic political blow to the organization’s perceived influence.” The timing and unilateral nature of this decision reflect internal Gulf disputes regarding responses to geopolitical tensions.

The next few years will be crucial as both the UAE and OPEC adjust their strategies in response to these developments and shifting dynamics in global oil supply.

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The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and has been part of it since the country was formed in 1971. The exit will officially take effect on April 28, 2026. This move represents a notable shift for OPEC, which is already grappling with challenges in the energy market.

In recent months, tensions have escalated due to Iranian threats affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil exports where about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas passes. The UAE criticized fellow Arab states for failing to adequately support its security against these Iranian attacks.

Donald Trump has also weighed in, accusing OPEC of inflating oil prices. He views the UAE’s decision as a potential victory against an organization he has long criticized.

Key facts:

• The UAE’s exit from OPEC will be effective on April 28, 2026.
• Brent crude oil price peaked at $119.50 per barrel during the Iran war.
• OPEC Gulf producers face challenges in shipping exports through key waterways due to security threats.
• The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and remained a member for nearly six decades.

Anwar Gargash commented on the situation, stating, “The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically.” He expressed surprise at the lack of political backing from the Gulf Cooperation Council during these turbulent times.

The implications of this departure are profound for both OPEC and global energy markets. As tensions rise and oil prices fluctuate, stakeholders will closely monitor how this shift impacts crude oil exports and pricing strategies moving forward.

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