The upheaval in the mortgage market is the biggest since the aftermath of the 2022 mini-budget. Average mortgage rates in the UK have now surpassed 5%, driven by turmoil in the home loan market caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

As of March 11, 2026, the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has reached 5.01%, while the typical rate on a five-year mortgage is now 5.09%. This sharp increase has prompted nearly 500 mortgage deals to be pulled in the past 48 hours, marking a significant shift in the lending landscape.

In total, 472 residential mortgage products were withdrawn from the market, reflecting a level of uncertainty not seen since the September 2022 mini-budget. With about 1.8 million fixed-rate deals set to expire in 2026, many borrowers will need to secure new mortgages under these challenging conditions.

Adam French, a financial expert, noted, “It’s unwelcome news for borrowers, as the prospect of falling mortgage rates has quickly given way to rate rises.” He further commented on the current situation, stating, “Recent days have been some of the most turbulent in the UK mortgage market since the aftermath of the September 2022 mini-budget.”

The probability of a rate reduction this year has dwindled to just 20%, down from 50% just days earlier on March 8, 2026. This shift indicates a growing concern among lenders and borrowers alike regarding future rate movements.

Looking ahead, the base rate is expected to be held at 3.75% during the central bank’s meeting on March 19, 2026. French mentioned that many of the withdrawn deals are likely to return in the coming days and weeks as lenders adjust their pricing strategies to align with higher rate expectations.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact impact of the Middle East conflict on future mortgage rates. Observers are closely monitoring how global markets and inflation expectations evolve in response to the ongoing situation.

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Prior to the outbreak of war, mortgage rates had largely been expected to continue on a downward trend in the UK this year. However, recent developments have shifted this outlook significantly. The escalation of conflict in Iran has revived inflation fears, prompting major UK lenders to adjust their mortgage rates upwards in response to changing interest rate expectations.

As of March 9, 2026, the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate rose to 4.84%, up from 4.82% just five days earlier. Similarly, the average five-year fixed residential mortgage rate increased from 4.94% to 4.96% within the same timeframe. These changes reflect a broader trend among lenders, including Barclays, which announced it would raise rates on some mortgage products starting March 10, 2026.

Ben Perks, a financial analyst, commented on the situation, stating, “When Trump dropped his first bomb on Iran, it blew up all hope of a rate reduction this month.” This sentiment is echoed by Mike Staton, who noted, “Yes, inflation is likely to tick up again with energy and fuel prices rising due to global conflict.” Such statements highlight the prevailing concern among experts regarding the potential for further increases in mortgage rates.

On March 9, 2026, the average two-year fixed homeowner mortgage rate was recorded at 4.87%, while the average five-year fixed homeowner mortgage rate stood at 4.98%. Numerous lenders, including HSBC and Nationwide, have also adjusted their fixed-rate offerings upwards, reflecting the changing economic landscape.

Market analysts suggest that the likelihood of an interest rate rise before the end of the year is now at 70%, with markets pricing in the possibility of only one rate cut for the entire year. This shift in expectations is largely attributed to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on inflation.

House prices have also been affected, with a reported increase of 0.3% in February 2026 following an 0.8% rise in January 2026. The combination of rising mortgage rates and increasing house prices presents a challenging environment for potential homebuyers.

Adam French, a housing market expert, remarked, “Mortgage rates had looked poised to fall ahead of an expected March base rate cut, but the escalation of conflict in Iran has abruptly shifted the mood and revived inflation fears.” This indicates that the current situation is fluid, and the outlook for mortgage rates may continue to evolve as events unfold.

Looking ahead, Alice Haine, a mortgage broker, noted, “If the Middle East conflict proves short-lived and mortgage rates ease again, brokers can often switch borrowers to a better rate on their product right up until two weeks before their mortgage term starts.” This suggests that there may still be opportunities for borrowers to secure favorable rates, depending on how the geopolitical situation develops.

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