Parts of a giant NASA satellite, the Van Allen Probe A, are set to crash to Earth on Tuesday evening, March 10, 2026, at approximately 7:45 PM EDT. Weighing around 1,323 lbs (600 kg), the spacecraft’s descent is occurring eight years ahead of the original projection of 2034.

The Van Allen Probe A was launched on August 30, 2012, as part of a mission to investigate the Van Allen belts, which are regions of charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. The satellite, along with its twin, was deactivated in 2019 after running out of fuel. While the second Van Allen Probe is not expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere before the end of this decade, the impending crash of the first probe has raised public interest and concern.

NASA has assessed the situation and stated, “The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low.” The agency expects that most of the spacecraft will burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components may survive re-entry. The chance of being struck by debris is estimated at 1 in 4,200, while the overall chance of anyone being hurt by falling debris is reported to be 1 in 3,200, according to a 2011 report.

Mark Matney, a NASA official, emphasized the low risk, saying, “The odds that you will be hit are one in several trillion, so quite low for any particular person.” Instances of space objects harming people or property on the ground are extremely rare, but not unprecedented. The only known case involved Lottie Williams, who was struck by falling manufactured space debris in 1997.

Over a 40-year period, it is estimated that roughly 5,400 tons of debris have survived re-entry. This history of space debris incidents contributes to the public’s awareness and concern regarding falling satellites. However, NASA’s assessments continue to indicate that the likelihood of injury remains minimal.

As the re-entry time approaches, observers are closely monitoring the situation. NASA and the US Space Force are working together to track the satellite’s descent and provide updates. Details remain unconfirmed as to whether any components will indeed survive the re-entry and reach the surface.

In summary, while the Van Allen Probe A’s crash may generate interest and concern, the risk to the public is deemed low. NASA continues to assure the public that safety measures and monitoring are in place as the satellite makes its final descent.

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